То, как прививка влияет на способность заразится и на способность передать вируса, это, разумеется, разные вопросы.
1. Прививка несомненно в разы снижает шансы заражения, даже Дельтой. Т.е. для полностью вакцинированной популяции эффективное репродуктивное число будет ниже, чем для не вакцинированной. Разумеется, R0 от вакцинации не меняется просто по определению. К сожалению, R0 Дельты столь велик, что для полной защиты от него при отсутствии других мер потребуется очень высокая доля вакцинированных и переболевших. Тут есть попытки моделировать этот процесс. Обратите внимание, что обуздать Дельту становится намного проще при использовании масок.
2. Относительная заразность вакцинированных и не вакцинированных больных, на самом деле, изучена слабо, и надежно определить это по имеющимся данным трудно или даже невозможно.
А. При знаменитой недавней вспышке в Массачусетсе это оценивали количеством вируса, детектируемого по ПЦР. Там огромный разброс показаний, и первые результаты (широко озвученные в прессе) были неотличимы. По мере того, как выборка возрастала, получилось различие >2 раза (>1 цикл ПЦР) между медианами у вакцинированных и не вакцинированных. Скорее всего – статистически не значимо. Т.е. эффект может быть (и быть эпидемиологически важным), но это нужно еще проверять.
Б. Важно учесть, что не вакцинированными считали только тех, у кого задокументировано 14 дней после полной вакцинации. Получившие одну из двух доз, закончившие все прививки недавно, просто переболевшие ковидом или не представившие правильных справок отнесены к не вакцинированным, хотя, конечно же, это сильно размывает эту категорию и искусственно уменьшает эффект вакцинации на все параметры.
В. Насколько я понял, вирусный титр проверяли преимущественно у симптоматических больных. Вполне вероятно, что среди подцепивших вирус вакцинированных таких меньше, чем среди не вакцинированных, а бессимптомники на самом деле производят меньше вируса. Т.е. вакцинированные носители действительно, в среднем, производят меньше вируса, но это не так заметно, ибо у них и симптомов нет.
Г. Строго говоря, детекция вируса по ПЦР не доказывает его инфективность. Например, можно легко представить, что часть вирусных частиц у вакцинированных покрыта антителами и менее способна к передаче. Конечно, дело осложняется и тем, что количество живого вируса не линейно соотносится с передачей. Например, бессимптомный больной еще и не кашляет. Но тяжелобольной может быть изолирован в больнице, где его кашель и высокий титр вируса уже не так опасны.
Earlier this year, a catastrophic surge in coronavirus cases ripped through India, killing tens of thousands in a matter of weeks, before plunging just as sharply. But even as markets reopened and street life resumed, the virus hasn’t faded away.
In parts of India, it might even be inching back.
Just weeks after India regained its footing from its second wave, pockets of sustained transmission nationwide, including in the south, are creating ripples of concern about a resurgence. Fresh daily cases, which have sometimes edged above 40,000 and have been concentrated in the state of Kerala, are highlighting the difficulty in stamping out the highly infectious delta variant even in a country where antibody studies suggest that two-thirds of the population has previous exposure to the virus.
India’s experience with the delta variant, which was responsible for nearly 90 percent of cases in May at the peak of the second wave, offers a preview for other countries, including the United States and China, as they grapple with the stubbornly persistent variant.
Public health experts and government officials have been divided about how severe India’s next surge will be and when it will arrive — if it comes at all. But they largely agree that the coronavirus is likely to continue to dog vulnerable swaths of India, and the world, until at least 80 percent of the population is vaccinated or has acquired antibodies from exposure.
Professor Neil Ferguson has admitted that his prediction that Britain would face 100,000 Covid cases per day once lockdown restrictions eased on July 19 was wrong.
The Imperial College professor, once known as Professor Lockdown for his support of strict Covid measures, has blamed the Euros 2020 for his predictions being incorrect.
He said that the football championship had created an "artificially inflated level of contact", which led to his predictions in July that the UK would hit such a high number of daily Covid cases following phase four of unlocking.
Professor Ferguson said that cases decreased after the tournament ended, and added that the pingdemic had a "reasonable effect" on making it harder for the virus to spread.
The former member of the Government’s Sage group also raised hopes that the pandemic will largely be under control in Britain by the autumn, due to the vaccines "dramatically" changing the relationship between cases and hospitalisation.
In an interview with the Times, he said that Covid was "going to transition quite quickly in a few months to be more something we live with and manage through vaccination rather than crisis measures".
He also told the newspaper that lockdowns are “unlikely” to be needed to control the pandemic in the UK in future.
Israel is heading to a nationwide lockdown by September, most health officials understand, but there are 1.1 million ways to prevent it, according to Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist for the Weizmann Institute of Science who has been advising the government throughout the pandemic.
Writing for N12, Segal said that Israel’s closure will be the result of the 1.1 million Israelis who can get vaccinated and have not yet.
“There is no real progress against this group,” he said. “We all feel, and will continue to feel, the consequences.”
Throughout the crisis, morbidity has only successfully been brought under control by two actions: vaccination or lockdown.
Segal said that when the rate of vaccination stopped increasing because Israel failed to convince the unvaccinated to get the jab, “we were left with a situation that allowed for a widespread outbreak – especially in an encounter with a strong and contagious strain like the Delta variant.
“No one thinks that these restrictions will stop the disease. At most, they will slow it down,” he continued. "And because the government is not going to close at this stage, the actual meaning is that Israel is implementing a policy of ‘mass contagion’ without declaring it. The morbidity will continue to rise, and soon hundreds of thousands of infected (vaccinated or not) will accumulate.”
Ну да, конечно, нужно было объявить заранее, что после вакцинации всех будут массово заражать. Особенно младенцев.
Юлия Латынина рассказывает историю вакцинации и борьбы с ней. Как объединились африканские колдуны, имамы, православные фундаменталисты, «зеленые» и производители фуфломицинов
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не надо шутить с войной
Говоря о США, Латынина вспомнила черных и Фаррахана, но очевидно удобно для себя забыла про политическую ориентацию и Таккера Карлсона. Раса идет лишь вторым коррелятором после политической ориентации.
A heavy mood characterised the COVID-19 briefing held by Icelandic authorities in Reykjavík today. Director of Civil Protection Víðir Reynisson stated the growing number of infections is pushing infrastructure close to its limit. According to Deputy Chief Epidemiologist Kamilla S. Jósefsdóttir, if the rate of infection continues to grow, contact tracing will become impossible, which will only further boost the spread of infection and increase the likelihood that the COVID-19 ward will have to turn away patients in need.
jenya: Я погорячился, конечно, даже если вакцинированный заразен, но меньше времени, всё равно R0 ниже, но сам факт меня поразил. Надеюсь, что будут опровержения.
В моем понимании, это зависит от уровня антител.
После прививки он высок, потом падает. Естественно, с разной скоростью у разных людей.
Но в среднем месяцев через 6-7 он таков, что подавить размножение дельты не способен.
Остаются Т-хелперы, которые активируются не очень быстро, поэтому вакцинированный после заражения успевает 1-3 дня побыть заразным, прежде чем либо полностью выздоровеет либо заболеет средне-тяжело.
Т.к. я не врач и не биолог, вышесказанное просьба не считать авторитетным мнением.
Возможно я путаю Т-хелперы и B-лимфоциты. Также возможно, играют роль и те и другие. Но суть, с точки зрения математика, не в деталях, а в том что есть мгновенно действующий фактор (белки-антитела в плазме), который быстро ослабевает со временем, и более медленные факторы, которые если и ослабевают со временем, то нам об этом пока не известно, так как столько времени со времени вакцинации еще даже у Биби не прошло.
Thursday’s protest was organized by unions representing nurses, police and other workers who fear Covid vaccinations could be mandated for some employees by the government.
“The information regarding a supposed agreement for the sale of the Sputnik V vaccine to the Argentine province of San Juan is fake. RDIF, the Gamaleya Center, and its partners have never signed agreements with that Argentine province nor [have they] authorised third parties to sign said agreements. The procurement of Sputnik V vaccines for Argentina is done only through the Argentine Government,” it read.
The bombshell statement suggested the operation was a sham, which seemed contradictory given the involvement of Pharmstandard, one of the most important Russian pharmaceuticals which is also an officially sanctioned producer of Sputnik V, and the fact that San Juan had deposited its cash in an escrow account with a renowned London firm, The Law Debenture Corporation, which is also publicly traded.
At the same time, sources told Perfil that the provincial operation counted with the support of the Alberto Fernández administration, with the direct involvement of multiple ministries and government agencies. Official sources at the Casa Rosada indicated they were aware of the San Juan purchase, but that they had warned against it.
“We were contacted by multiple intermediaries, all of them with opaque backgrounds offering extremely high prices which sometimes reached two to three times market values. With regards to San Juan, they consulted us and we informed them that the RDIF did not authorise third parties, they only negotiated state-to-state and that no one could guarantee the vaccines would arrive or that they wouldn’t be fake. But the province had a proposal it considered good, legitimate, and it moved forward. [From the national government] we are at their disposal to collaborate,” said a government source.
Thus, both the RDIF and the Argentine government turned their backs on the San Juan operation, leaving the governor on one hand and RuL AG — the intermediary — hung out to dry. Well-connected sources within the national government confirmed that they checked several offers that came through intermediaries with the original manufacturers and received the same response: “They didn’t work with intermediaries, their number one priority is state-to-state negotiations. Every offer outside of that circuit did not count with their backing.”
As mentioned previously, this also seemed to contradict reports by The Moscow Times which indicated the RDIF had “awarded an Emirati royal exclusive rights to sell its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to a host of countries in at least three continents in a deal that has seen buyers paying huge premiums for supplies.” It also goes hand-in--hand with another piece of information published by the same outlet indicating Russian vaccine exports had exploded to over US$300 million in the first five months of 2021, which is more than the sum of the previous three years combined. Sputnik V, of course, has been the leading product, but other jabs including yellow fever and the flu have contributed their part. The exponential growth of this market opportunity, combined with a global shortage of doses, seems like fair breeding ground for intermediaries and mark-ups, and their proliferation makes it unlikely that authorities at some level are unaware of their existence.
Заехал на денёк в славный город Анапу. Впервые с начала безобразия увидел место, где примет безобразия не наблюдается в принципе (кроме того, что в отеле попросили предъявить справочку). Открыто абсолютно всё без намёка на ограничения. Масок нет, то есть вообще нет, включая официантов. Намордников не носит вообще никто, что поразительно - ведь энтузиасты даже при гриппе всегда были! Но вот нету. О соцдистанции или там избегании скоплений я уж и не говорю. Как сказал по другому поводу широко известный в узких кругах персонаж - "весь революционный жар выходит из него на пляже".
jenya: вакцина просто не даёт заразному самому заболеть
В этом случае принудительная (или "добровольно-принудительная") вакцинация, любое ограничение прав в зависимости от наличия справочки не имеет вообще никаких оправданий.
Прошел месяц с отмены в Испании обязательного ношения масок на улице, но здесь, в "средиземноморской Анапе", большинство продолжает носить маски совершенно добровольно (и по всем правилам). Только если в начале отмены большинство это было абсолютным и подавляющим, то сейчас это - "простое" большинство.
На "глобальные" умозаключения не претендую, но про это уже писал: народ не волнуют проценты. Народ совершенно не волнуют вероятности. И устрашающие картинки из Нью_Йорка испанцев волнуют не больше, чем харьковчан или алупчан. Но их-то, испанцев, бомбануло конкретно, одних из первых, и картинки не откуда-то, а из самой непосредственной "поблизости", врезаются накрепко.
Только что совершил небольшое путешествие в ближайший супермаркет и за сигаретами подальше, и решил посчитать число встреченных прохожих в масках и без. Но в какой-то момент сбился: понял, что перепутал "корзины". Пришлось начинать сначала, однако в результате выборка оказалась слишком мала для хотя бы приблизительного заключения.
(но тем не менее: соотношение получилось 4 к 1)
Почитатель: Прошел месяц с отмены в Испании обязательного ношения масок на улице, но здесь, в "средиземноморской Анапе", большинство продолжает носить маски совершенно добровольно (и по всем правилам). Только если в начале отмены большинство это было абсолютным и подавляющим, то сейчас это - "простое" большинство.
(Про то кафе сейчас, почти полтора года спустя, сомнительно, ибо - прямое нарушение закона, но в принципе, в "подпольном" варианте - возможно и сегодня)
CNN President Jeff Zucker told staff Thursday that the network fired three employees who came to work without getting a Covid-19 vaccine, as the company steps up efforts to keep the virus from spreading in its offices.
In an email to employees Thursday, Mr. Zucker said that the terminated employees violated the company’s honor system, which asked workers to attest that they were vaccinated but didn’t require them to produce documentary evidence of their vaccination.
“Let me be clear—we have a zero-tolerance policy on this,” Mr. Zucker said. “You need to be vaccinated to come to the office. And you need to be vaccinated to work in the field, with other employees, regardless of whether you enter an office or not.”
Радиоведущий-антипрививочник из Флориды Дик Фаррел скончался от коронавируса, перед смертью он изменил свои взгляды и призвал друзей прививаться.
Главного инфекциониста страны Фаучи Фаррел называл "обезумевшим от власти сумасшедшим лжецом", а вакцины считал "мошенничеством". Он утверждал также, что демократы будто бы никогда не дают положительных проб на вирус, потому что сам вирус якобы выдумка, чтобы одурачить республиканцев.
Три недели назад Фаррел попал в больницу с коронавирусом и изменил свое мнение. Его друг Ли Хейр написал в Facebook, что решил привиться после смерти ведущего. "Из-за него я сделал укол. Он прислал мне SMS и сказал мне привиться. Он сказал мне, что вирус - не шутка, и добавил, что и сам должен бы был привиться", - написал Хейр.
In his last Facebook post July 30, Apley shared a Twitter post mocking COVID-19.
“In 6 months, we’ve gone from the vax ending the pandemic, to you can still get Covid even if vaxxed, to you can pass Covid onto others even if vaxxed, to you can still die of Covid even if vaxxed, to the unvaxxed are killing the vaxxed,” the post read.
Apley, 45 was admitted to a Galveston hospital two days after that post with pneumonia-like symptoms. He tested positive for COVID-19 and was placed on a ventilator. He died around 3 a.m. Wednesday
In April, he responded to a doctor's tweet about the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy with this statement: "You are an absolute enemy to a free people." In May, he shared a post about a mask burning event with the comment: "I wish I lived in the area!"
The death has sparked vitriol and insensitive comments on social media from people criticizing Apley’s apparent choice to decline the vaccine. The phone in Dickinson City Hall was ringing Thursday morning, said Dickinson Mayor Sean Skipworth, with calls from people telling the mayor to “go to hell” after he expressed condolences for the councilmember’s death.
“This isn’t the moment to have a victory lap and say, ‘I told you so,’” Skipworth said, calling for kindness but urging action. “Please — get vaccinated if it’s something you’re able to do.”
“In the last 10 days, we have had six members of our church who passed away from COVID. Four of them were under the age of 35. All of them were healthy, and the only thing they had in common was they were not vaccinated,” said Senior Pastor George Davis at Impact Church in Arlington.
He says 15 to 20 members are now in the hospital, another 10 or so are at home with the virus and three to five vaccinated members also tested positive.
Beijing should look at adjusting its zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19, despite the spread of the more transmissible Delta variant, as other countries start to open up, Chinese health experts said.
They also called on authorities to learn from the experience of other nations on reopening borders, particularly in the lead-up to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.
Liu Guoen, director of the Peking University China Centre for Health Economic Research, said it would be difficult for the country to achieve zero cases given the rapid spread of the Delta variant. He told a webinar organised by tech firm Baidu on Friday that “serious and systematic discussion” was needed to decide whether to “adjust and optimise the current strategy”.
Speaking at the same event, Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, agreed that changes were needed to build stronger herd immunity and move towards ending the zero-Covid-19 approach.
“The vast majority are mild cases [in China’s latest outbreak], which should not have caused so much panic and pressure,” Zeng said. “Staying at zero cases is absolutely impossible from the perspective of the whole world … and other countries will not wait for zero cases before they open their borders.”
... These and other measures helped China achieve zero locally transmitted cases and 2.3 per cent GDP growth during pandemic-hit 2020. But there are growing concerns the zero-tolerance strategy could start to bring more economic costs than benefits, especially as other nations move towards “living with the virus”. Those concerns have seen investment banks including Nomura and Goldman Sachs either cutting or signalling they may cut forecasts for China’s economic growth in the second half of the year.
CDC epidemiologist Zeng said more people needed to get vaccinated as mass immunisation remained the key to adjusting pandemic controls, and development of new vaccines should be pushed forward.
He said China would eventually reopen its borders as other countries were doing, but it was important to reach a consensus on when it would be safe to do so.
Rep. Ron Wright, a Texas Republican, died Sunday after testing positive for the coronavirus, his campaign announced in a statement on Monday. He is the first sitting member of Congress to die after being diagnosed with the virus.
Wright, 67, said last month he began a quarantine on Jan. 15 after coming into contact with an individual who had the virus a week earlier. He said he tested positive for the virus the following week, on Jan. 21.
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp QUICK THREAD ON VACCINES & DELTA:
Friday's @PHE_uk report said that viral load in infected vaccinated people was similar to that of uninfected people.
As has been pointed out by others, this does *not* mean all is lost and vaccines don't work.
Долгое время первой была Новая Зеландия, в июне США поднялись на первое место, а теперь Норвегия
Самыми последними были Мексика, Бразилия, Аргентина, а теперь Индонезия
