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The second wave is primed with Argentina and makes Alberto Fernndez lose his nerve
Few things more disturbing than a president who loses his temper publicly in the middle of a pandemic, and that is precisely what Argentines are experiencing with Alberto Fernndez.
“Yesterday I read an idiot who called me a dictator. What is the dictatorship that I am exercising, take care of the people? Look at the numbers, 20,000 infected daily. I heard other idiots who said that contagions are a political solution. Someone thinks that the Who governs a country wins by making politics with the number of infected? You have to be a deep idiot to say those things or a very bad person, “said an unleashed Fernandez during a radio interview.
Fernandez, vaccinated with Sputnik V, is recovering from the Covid contagion that he announced on April 2, and while that happens, his government is maneuvering to delay this year’s crucial parliamentary elections. The opposition seeks to prevent Peronism, without a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, from reaching two-thirds in the Senate. The Government, in turn, understands that delaying the elections for at least a month with the excuse of the pandemic will give it better possibilities, since it will have vaccinated more people and the economy will advance in the incipient recovery that is insinuated today. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33117 |
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Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study
| We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33119 |
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South American Covid Haven Suffers Record Illness and Death
Uruguay now ranks No. 1 in the world by one measure of infections with 6,071 new cases per 1 million people in the last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 86% of the 1,275 Covid fatalities reported since the start are from this year with a spate of nursing home deaths in recent weeks, including more than 20 in one home alone. The proliferation of the more infectious P1 strain from Brazil isn’t helping.
President Lacalle Pou this week extended measures through the end of April when the government’s vaccine program might begin to show the first results. A fervent believer in personal freedom -- the first conservative to hold the office in 15 years -- he said he wouldn’t turn his country into a “a police state” by declaring a hard lockdown. |
| Uruguay was the last country in South America to launch a vaccination campaign. It inoculated 812,374 people with the first dose and another 192,788 with both doses. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33120 |
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Такими темпами они опровергнут мой прогноз про "худшее в июне-июле".
Все же массовая вакцинация на начальных этапах видимо является более сильным фактором усилениа эпидемия, чем интуитивно кажется исходя из здравого смысла.
Только в США как-то удалось избежать этого эффекта. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33121 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33122 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33123 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33124 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33125 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33126 |
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Пришло подтверждение, что лучше передвигаться короткими перебежками от кочки к кочке иногда постреливая в злостных нарушителей масочного режима, чем сидеть дома безвылазно на локдауне.
Physical inactivity is associated with a higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes: a study in 48 440 adult patients
We linked each patient’s self-reported physical activity category (consistently inactive=0–10min/week, some activity = 11–149min/week, consistently meeting guidelines = 150+ min/week) to the risk of hospitalization, ICU admission and death after COVID-19 diagnosis.
Results: Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalization (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines. Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalization (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity.
Conclusions: Consistently meeting physical activity guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes among infected adults. We recommend efforts to promote physical activity be prioritized by public health agencies and incorporated into routine medical care. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33127 |
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Johnson & Johnson Vaccinations Paused After Rare Clotting Cases Emerge
Injections of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine came to a sudden halt across the country on Tuesday after federal health agencies called for a pause in the vaccine’s use as they examine a rare blood-clotting disorder that emerged in six recipients.
All six were women between the ages of 18 and 48, and all developed the illness within one to three weeks of vaccination. One woman in Virginia died, and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.
More than seven million people in the United States have received Johnson & Johnson shots so far, and another 10 million doses have been shipped out to the states, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. |
| Dr. Janet Woodcock, the acting commissioner of the F.D.A., said at a news conference that the pause might last only “a matter of days,” although she said that depended on “what we learn in the next few days.” Dr. Schuchat said the pause was enacted partly to “prepare the health care system to recognize and treat patients appropriately.” |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33128 |
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The European regulators had said it was not clear that the effect existed for any vaccine other than AstraZeneca’s.
“If you look at those reports of blood clots with thrombocytopenia for those other vaccines and then compare them to the background rate we would expect to see, they are not raised,” Peter Arlett, the European Medicines Agency’s head of pharmacovigilance, said at an April 7 press conference.
He gave somewhat mismatched figures — cases of clots worldwide, along with the number of people who received vaccine only in Europe. Still, he said there were 35 cases of serious blood clots with the vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech among 54 million doses given; five cases with the Moderna vaccine among 4 million Europeans dosed; and three cases, later updated to four, of blood clots with low platelet counts among 4.5 million people doses — apparently worldwide — with the vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson. That is the number the U.S. appears to have updated to six cases out of 6.8 million doses.
By contrast, he said, there were 169 cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, and another 53 similar clots in a blood vessel draining the abdomen, among 34 million people. |
The J&J vaccine, like the Sputnik V vaccine developed in Russia, uses a form of adenovirus — Ad26, that is found in humans. (The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines use a different technology, known as mRNA.) The Ad26 adenovirus used in the J&J vaccine is evolutionary distant from the adenovirus used by AstraZeneca, even using a different cellular receptor to enter cells.
Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a veteran of discussions about vaccine safety, rattled off a list of questions even before the news about the J&J vaccine broke. Why, he asked, would a vaccine lead to the production of antibodies against platelet factor 4?
“What you really would love to know,” Offit said, “is what is causing the immune response to platelet factor 4?”
Is some part of the adenovirus mimicking platelet factor 4? If so, would that same mimicry occur with other adenoviruses? There’s no clear answer. But Offit suspects it’s a class-wide problem, meaning the same phenomenon associated with AstraZeneca’s vaccine is associated with Johnson & Johnson’s.
“There is going to be something about the adenovirus — whether it’s adenoviral DNA or an adenovirus protein — that complexes with platelet factor 4. So that will be determined, I suspect soon.” |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33129 |
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| Как-то непоследовательно. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33130 |
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| Что именно непоследовательно? |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33131 |
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| Ну в первом отрывке в наборе данных J&J на уровне мРНК вакцин, а во втором отрывке строится гипотеза, что проблема общая для вакцин аденовирусных. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33132 |
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Ну он еще до новостей о J&J спекулировал, примерно как я здесь
И набор данных там все-таки нужно проверить, говорят несоответствующие. То есть число уколов европейское, а число проблем, может, мировое. По крайней мере, может, по каким-то вакцинам. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33133 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33134 |
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Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia after Ad26.COV2.S Vaccination
We describe a case of extensive thrombosis associated with severe thrombocytopenia and disseminated intravascular coagulation that resembled autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia in a patient who had received the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen), a recombinant adenovirus serotype 26 vector encoding the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein.
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Unlike the Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, which are messenger RNA–based, the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines are nonreplicating adenovirus vector–based DNA vaccines. Our case suggests that the rare occurrence of vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia could be related to adenoviral vector vaccines. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33135 |
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Michigan at 'record high' for COVID-19 hospitalizations of children
Among the biggest drivers of coronavirus infections in the state, health officials have said, are outbreaks among youth athletes and those associated with K-12 schools. This week, the state reported 312 ongoing or new school outbreaks, which includes infections linked to classrooms, after-school activities and sports.
Cases among kids ages 10-19 are at an all-time high, the state's top epidemiologist, Sarah Lyon-Callo, reported last week, quadrupling from four weeks earlier. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33136 |
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| grizly: Cases among kids ages 10-19 are at an all-time high, the state's top epidemiologist, Sarah Lyon-Callo, reported last week, quadrupling from four weeks earlier |
а насколько процент смертности среди госпитализированных упал по сравнению с летом прошлого года? еще интересно, конечно, на сколько упал процент переводимых в интенсив кэр, но эти данные могут так прямо и не публиковать |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33137 |
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Среди каких возрастов? Или среди всех госпитализированных?
По ICU не видел данных. А другие во Флориде могут быть, но там немного база данных изменилась.
Тогда, кстати, умирали и не госпитализированные. Не знаю, как сейчас. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33138 |
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grizly: Среди каких возрастов? Или среди всех госпитализированных?
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да и без разбивки было бы занятно. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33139 |
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Для всех он должен быть упасть потому, что средний возраст госпитализированных упал. Но конкретно из таких графиков не знаю, что можно расмотреть за последний период, потому что смерти могут задерживаться месяца на два в данных и непонятно точно в какой период они уже почти все поступили, а где еще поступят.
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33140 |
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| ну то, что сейчас смертность ниже, чем в любое прочее время эпидемии на нем вполне можно рассмотреть. новые штаммы, большая заразность - и меньшая смертность соответсвенно. я где-то год вяло веду беседу с роджером, который пытается меня убедить, что это совсем никак не связанные вещи, вот и поинтересовался. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33141 |
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Фатальность должна была уменьшиться в какой-то момент в прошлом году из-за лучшего лечения, но это тоже непонятно из этих графиков. На самом деле, даже если смотреть на возрастную когорту, сильно зависит насколько тяжелых берут в больницу, а каких оставляют дома - здесь зависит насколько переполняются больницы. Но в последнее время во Флориде по идее фатальность в возрастных когортах должна была возрасти из-за британского штамма, по крайней мере большинство статей об этом говорит.
Кстати, на этих графиках общее количество смертей, не обязательно госпитализированных. Не смотрел сколько умирает дома.
А вот эффект вакцинации из этих данных, но других графиков, можно достаточно хорошо видеть, если сравнивать возрастные когорты |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33143 |
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| grizly: Но в последнее время во Флориде по идее фатальность в возрастных когортах должна была возрасти из-за британского штамма, по крайней мере большинство статей об этом говорит. |
большинство статей этим пугают, но график наглядно не подтверждает данную гипотезу. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33144 |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33145 |
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| grizly: . С чего вдруг одним пугать, а другим наоборот успокаивать? |
мммм.... дайте подумать.... с источниками финансирования, конечно, это же никак не может быть связано, да? |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33146 |
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| Ну-ну, продолжайте. Не совсем понятно кто эти противоборствующие силы, которые платят одним за одно мнение по этому вопросу, а другим за другое. Не уверен, что и те и другие силы не платят тем же людям, перекупая их - просто не следил за авторами. |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33147 |
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Calling it a “promising development,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Sunday that alcohol may help people survive the most severe effects of coronavirus briefings.
Noting that millions of Americans have been exposed to the daily briefings of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Fauci said that he had voluntarily submitted to a preliminary trial of the alcohol-based therapy. “What we have found is that a single dosage before the briefing and as much as a double dosage after the briefing do much to alleviate the most acute suffering,” Fauci said.
The esteemed virologist said that if Americans are able to administer additional doses during the briefings, “Consider yourself lucky.” But, even as Fauci hailed the benefits of the new treatment, he sounded a note of caution. “The effect of this medication is temporary,” he said. “Sadly.” |
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| номер сообщения: 49-54-33148 |
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